![]() And seasonal outlooks - such as whether it will be a cold, snowy winter - tend to be only marginally more accurate. But in most cases, determining when it will rain or snow more than seven to 10 days into the future, and sometimes fewer, is simply beyond the range of predictability. Yes, some people swear by these long-range forecasts. The Old Farmer's Almanacis forecasting that in the last week of January, rain in Washington will turn to snow, and that it will be sunny and cold afterward. It's possible to accurately predict the weather weeks or months in advance ![]() These happen a few times a decade, and such an event occurred last January.Ĥ. But when a section of the fence collapses and you have a whole pack of dogs racing toward the U.S.-Canadian border, that's analogous to our truly historic, punishing outbreaks of Arctic air. When a dog sneaks through a weakness in the fence, that's similar to a run-of-the-mill cold snap. Think of it as a fence holding in packs of dogs constantly trying to break through. The vortex simply describes a meandering circulation around the North (and South) Pole that typically contains the planet's coldest air. It isn't a new phenomenon, either - it's been referred to and studied by meteorologists for decades. Rest assured, the vortex isn't anything like a tornado. Poorly worded scientific explanations - such as one from City College of New York physicist Michio Kaku, who likened the vortex to a "tornado of cold air" - added to the alarm and confusion. Area Tomorrow." Rush Limbaugh proclaimed that it was an invention of the left, part of an effort to manipulate the global warming debate. When the term burst into the public lexicon last January, over-the-top headlines warned of "13 Things You Didn't Know You Needed to Survive the Polar Vortex" and "Polar Vortex, Snow Storm Will Bring Certain Doom To D.C. The polar vortex has generated a lot of hype this past year. In other words, when you see a forecast high of 82, most of the time the actual high will be between 80 and 85. ![]() ![]() In his 2012 essay "The Weatherman Is Not a Moron," statistician Nate Silver pointed to weather forecasting as "the one area in which our predictions are making extraordinary progress." A one-day temperature forecast is now typically accurate within about two to 2.5 degrees, according to National Weather Service data. But while every meteorologist occasionally makes an errant forecast, weather predictions are generally quite good. They're almost always wrong."īelichick's comments were typical of the criticisms and jokes we hear about forecast accuracy. There was 100 percent chance of rain last week, and the only water I saw was on the Gatorade table. "Based on the forecasts we've gotten so far this year, none of them have been close to what game conditions were. "I'm just telling you - if I did my job the way they do theirs, I'd be here about a week," New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick said in October. ![]()
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